A decade after the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that divided the nation and triggered disorder, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and voters drifted into Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two respected journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially tense and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our archipelago remains very unstable."
New Title Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have examined the political, financial and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a book, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the issue with a tour of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everyone, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily divided society where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side don't know exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say such a time is approaching, and a group called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the possibility, leaving it unclear if and when there might be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has masked the absence of serious debate, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has gone on in academia but very few elected officials or activists seek to involve themselves with even the fundamentals. For instance, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, no writer endorses unification or the current situation. Both authors two essays that aim for objectivity in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument against, assembling economic and societal data, past examples and constitutional models.
Debates range over identity markers, levies, medical care, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of unionist unrest. The goal is to educate and encourage dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an acknowledgement of the concept that there might be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they support unity but reject paying higher taxes or introducing a new flag to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to determine what the plan from Irish nationalism is aside from just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
McBride believes a referendum in his generation is possible and that it may take place abruptly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a incompetent government minister who states: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have plausible, valid arguments, he said. "One side will prevail on this issue and the other side will eventually not succeed but all factions has has valuable insights to learn from the other's arguments."
Call for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster should participate in the discussion, urged the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish matter."
