Starmer's Allies Initiate 'Stop Andy Burnham' Effort to Thwart Manchester Mayor's Parliamentary Re-entry

Loyalists of Prime Minister Keir Starmer have reportedly started a concerted campaign to prevent Andy Burnham, the Labour Party Greater Manchester Mayor, from securing a comeback to the House of Commons. This action follows the stepping down of a Manchester MP, which has triggered an upcoming byelection.

Major Barriers in the Candidate Selection Process

Several members on the party's ruling NEC have reportedly suggested it would be extremely difficult for Mr. Burnham to successfully pass through the selection procedure. This is primarily due to the sizable presence of Starmer loyalists on the body who are keen to head off any potential challenge to Starmer's leadership.

The Labour hierarchy is said to have mobilised following the revelation of the MP's intended resignation, with party figures and MPs raising concerns about the substantial financial cost and political risk of a subsequent election for mayor in Greater Manchester.

Burnham's Ambitions and Party Concerns

Andy Burnham has been open about his national ambitions. Last year, he caused outrage within No 10 and among senior ministers when he stated that numerous MPs had encouraged him to stand for the party leadership.

There has long been speculation that he is seeking a return to parliament to possibly stand for the Labour leadership if a contest to Sir Keir arise. However, supporters of the Mayor have warned against exaggerating the level of any planning, suggesting he is passionate about his job as mayor and would only return Westminster if he felt he had a meaningful contribution to make.

"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a supporter stated.

Current Climate and Poll Ratings

Amid opinion polls indicating Sir Keir is struggling in the polls and many MPs pessimistic about Labour's prospects at the next election, Andy Burnham stands out as the only prominent Labour personality with consistently positive public approval ratings.

If Mr. Burnham decide to run, several hurdles remain. He would need to be selected by the NEC—where the odds are not in his favour—and then win the byelection against challenges from Reform UK and pro-Gaza independents, all before any possible leadership challenge.

The 'Stop Andy' Campaign

Senior Labour figures have said that a "Stop Andy" campaign is already under way, with the party's organisation being closely managed by key allies of the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister himself commented that the by-election procedure was in its "initial phases" and urged his MPs to cease discussion of possible contests for the leadership.

Andy Burnham, commenting before the MP's resignation was confirmed, told reporters: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."

Financial and Political Dangers

Figures on the committee have reportedly cited not only personal animosity towards Mr. Burnham but also the prohibitive cost of a by-election for mayor in Greater Manchester. This could redirect an estimated £500,000 in party funding from other key electoral battles across the country.

"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," an insider claimed.

A number of insiders also shared concerns about Reform UK potentially fill any vacancy left by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a major political win for them.

Union Influence and Procedural Fears

Being an elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's permission to run. There is also speculation the body could enforce an women-only shortlist to block his nomination.

However, a supporter counselled against assuming the NEC would automatically reject him, even though Sir Keir's team is widely thought to dominate it.

The trade unions hold a significant number of seats on the NEC. While the biggest unions are for now remaining quiet, sources indicated they would be uncomfortable with anything perceived as interference from Downing Street.

The general secretary of the Fire Brigades Union stated: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."

By-election Battle

The seat in question holds a sizable Labour lead. However, Reform UK is expected to mount a strong challenge, capitalising on its vote in one part of the constituency. Labour believes it is on stronger footing in the more populous Greater Manchester section, though it could encounter a challenge from pro-Gaza independents.

If Mr. Burnham return to parliament, he would need the support of 80 Labour MPs to launch a leadership challenge, a hurdle that is not guaranteed given he is regarded with caution by some on the backbenches.

The departing MP stated he was resigning due to declining mental health, which had made it impossible for him to carry on in his role. He also remains subject to a parliamentary standards investigation related to his involvement in an offensive online group.