‘The Situation is Dire’: War on Iran Squeezes India's LPG Stock.

The ripple effects of a conflict being fought nearly 1,864 miles away are now being felt in India's kitchens.

As US-Israeli strikes on Iran disrupt energy deliveries through the Strait of Hormuz, supplies of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) are dwindling across India, pushing restaurants to reduce offerings, reduce operating times and in some cases shut down altogether.

Social media is awash with video clips showing lines outside fuel suppliers across Indian cities and towns as concerns over fuel supplies escalate. Restaurant kitchens appear the worst hit: the most severe shortage is in commercial eateries.

"The situation is dire. Kitchen fuel simply is unavailable," says a representative of the an industry group.

Most restaurants run either on business-grade gas tanks or pipeline-supplied fuel, and the scarcities are now being felt across the country. "Many restaurants have ceased operations - some in northern India, many in the south. People are turning to solid fuels and electric cookers to keep food preparation going."

Regional Impact

In a western metro, accounts say up to a 20% of hotels and restaurants are already completely or partially closed as commercial LPG supplies dwindle. In the southern cities of Bengaluru and Chennai, some restaurants say their cylinder inventory have depleted with scarce alternatives. "Our menu is reduced to coffee and no other dishes - it is extremely difficult. Operations will be impacted," says a business operator in Bengaluru.

Restaurant owners are seeking alternatives. "Offering lists are shrinking, some are skipping midday meals and operating solely in the evening," an industry representative says, adding that shutdowns are fluctuating as supplies wax and wane. "Several establishments in Delhi were shut yesterday - some have resumed operations. It's a fluid situation."

Retailers observe a spike in sales of electronic cooking appliances, with some saying they are running out of them.

Authority's View

Yet, the officials maintains there is sufficient stock.

India has more than 300 million domestic LPG users and spokespersons say cylinders are being prioritized to households as geopolitical strain from the regional hostilities ripple through energy markets.

Approximately six out of ten of India's LPG is brought in from overseas, and about 90% of those consignments pass through the critical waterway, the strategic bottleneck now significantly disrupted by the war.

The petroleum ministry says that it instructed refineries to boost LPG output for household consumption, raising domestic production by about 25%. Non-domestic supply is being prioritised for critical services such as healthcare and education, while distribution will be "just and open".

"A degree of anxious stocking and hoarding has been triggered by misinformation. The regular refill period for household cylinders remains about 60 hours," says a government spokesperson.

Spreading Anxiety

Now the worry is extending beyond kitchens. On online networks, a widely shared video from Chennai shows a extended procession of two-wheelers outside a fuel station. "The panic is real," the text reads.

According to analysis from industry analysts, concerns about India's broader petroleum stocks may be premature.

India imports 90% of its crude oil. Around a significant portion of its petroleum shipments - about 2.5-2.7 million barrels a day - travel through the passage, largely from Middle Eastern nations.

Even if crude flows through the Strait of Hormuz are blocked, the gap could be partly offset by higher imports of discounted Russian crude, according to a sector expert.

Based on shipping data and expert analysis, increased Russian crude imports could reach around 1-1.2 million barrels a day, narrowing India's effective deficit from exposure to the Strait of Hormuz to about 1.6 million barrels a day.

"A large quantity of Russian oil barrels are currently on the water in the Indian Ocean and, with only India and China as major buyers, those barrels remain a viable alternative," an analyst noted.

Cooking Gas: The Critical Weakness

The primary concern is cooking gas, analysts say.

India consumes roughly a million barrels a day, but produces only 40-45% domestically, importing the rest - most of it through the Strait.

Refineries can adjust processes to squeeze out a bit more LPG, but even a moderate increase would only increase domestic supply to about around half of demand, leaving the country significantly leaning on imports.

In short: "Petroleum shortage concerns can be partially mitigated through varied suppliers. Processed petroleum stocks remains largely sufficient. Cooking gas supply is the real variable to monitor in the coming weeks."

What may be intensifying the anxiety on the ground is not just limited availability but patchy deliveries - and the familiar spectre of hoarding.

An industry representative alleges price gouging.

"Retailers are misusing the situation - selling fuel on the black market and selling them at a high cost. In one small town, I heard of cylinders being stockpiled and sold to the highest bidder."

For now, India's oil supplies may be buffered by worldwide shipping. But in homes across the country, the more immediate question is simple: how to get the next cylinder.