🔗 Share this article

Just 48 hours before the NYC mayoral election, political analyst Michael Lange issued a significant electoral prediction – going beyond the winner citywide, but precinct by precinct. The analyst, a political analyst who grew up in the city, devoted over a decade in left-leaning activism and emerged as a kind of local celebrity this year for his thorough analyses into municipal statistics and polling.

He released his highly detailed forecast map – which correctly forecast that Zohran Mamdani would win while missing the independent candidate’s strong performance – on his newsletter, the Narrative War. Lange has a flair for clever terms. He highlighted, as an example, the split between the progressive stronghold, running from one neighborhood to Bushwick to Astoria, where he predicted (correctly) that the left-wing candidate would win by large leads, and the conservative-leaning zone on Manhattan’s Upper East and Upper West Sides. In those areas, “the Free Press and Wall Street Journal outrank the New York Times” in readership and the majority of electors favored Cuomo, campaigning as a moderate alternative.

Election Night Trends and Unexpected Results

What was your night?

I had to do that since they were dropping around 200,000 votes into the system frequently! I felt a little nervous initially: Mamdani led the early vote by 12 points, but there were large groups of ballots added later and the advantage went from 12% to 8%. It was concerning.

You know, there was a world where yesterday turned out kind of poorly for him, in which Cuomo was going to end up basically doubling his votes from the Democratic primary. But the winner added 500,000 votes to his initial base, and this was critical why he won. He campaigned and massively expanded his support from the first round.

Coalition Building

How did Mamdani gain those extra votes from?

He built the coalition that the left long aimed for: diverse racially, youthful, it’s renters and it’s people squeezed by affordability. He improved significantly with Black and Hispanic voters, working- and middle-class voters, compared to the earlier election. Plus he further maximized his core of liberal progressives, young leftists, and immigrant groups. He couldn’t have won without making those significant inroads.

He built the coalition that progressives long aimed for: diverse, youthful, renters and people struggling with costs

Additionally, there were a number of supporters of both candidates – is that a big trend?

It’s definitely a real thing, confined to working-class Latinos, Asian communities and Islamic voters. Electors in ethnic enclaves that went for the former president last year backed Zohran this year. However it’s not that he was gaining Caucasian laborers and Maga voters.

Voter Participation and Effects

One of the big stories of the election was the record participation. Who did that help?

Each candidate. Participation was much greater than anticipated. I figured we might exceed 2 million, but it reached 2.3 million – which is a huge number of participants. Existed a decent opposition group, energized, but the Mamdani base was also motivated, and that was enough to win.

You predicted he’d get over half the ballots. Is he on course for that?

Right now you would say he’s likely to get over half. He’s at 50.4% but there’s still around 200K ballots left to report as of Wednesday morning. Thus it’s not certain, but I think it’s likely, and I hope he does so afterwards no one can say the Republican was a spoiler.

Republican Collapse

The GOP candidate, the Republican candidate, was another surprise. His support plummeted.

He didn’t win any district in any area. Including one neighborhood in Staten Island, which is like an highly conservative neighborhood. That really surprised me. Cuomo kept very white areas, affluent zones and very religiously Jewish areas, and plus gained all of these conservatives on Staten Island with a high participation. I believe occurred significant strategic balloting by the Republicans. They were doing it prior to the former president endorsed for Cuomo, but it assisted. It could have even turned the tide unless the winning alliance hadn’t grown.

Progressive Strongholds

Regarding your often-discussed “commie corridor” – was support for Mamdani dominant in those parts of the boroughs?

In my view there was a little dilution of the commie corridor in certain places like neighborhoods that have older Caucasian residents. There, for example, the Greek landlords and homeowners supported the independent. So there was a little resistance. However no, largely the commie corridor is a key factor why Mamdani won – he was polling between 77% and 83% in specific neighborhoods.

Community Support

In the lead-up to the election we reported on if the candidate was gaining ground with Jewish New Yorkers. Any indication that he succeeded?

There are neighborhoods with many non-religious and left-inclined voters – like Park Slope and Morningside Heights – where he performed strongly. However in the wealthy Jewish communities such as the Manhattan area, his position on Israel was influential in those places. Likewise in the more middle-class Jewish areas including Queens neighborhoods, or Bronx areas – they all leaned the independent. And also, you have newcomers from Eastern Europe in southern Brooklyn, who were pretty staunchly Cuomo. Therefore it’s unclear if there were major surprises on this one, but Mamdani retained more progressive Jewish neighborhoods and including sections of the another locale by big margins.

Long-Term Significance

Did Mamdani redefine what New York means politically? Will the commie corridor serve as a springboard for leftwing candidates?

Yes, it’s not accidental that key figures from progressives hail from a few areas in Brooklyn, Queens and the Bronx. I believe that there will be more of that – candidates will emerge from these neighborhoods to be elevated nationally.

But I think that each urban center in the US can have their own commie corridor. Cities are the centers of leftwing power in the nation – since youth reside there, people rent and they are places where people are crushed by the disparities we face.